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Hot Market: Seeing The Smoke Before The Fire

by M. Anthony Carr - Fri, May 9, 2008
Provided byRealty Times
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Several markets across the country are starting to heat up -- if you know what to look for. Take across Florida -- prices are depressed, sales are down in the double digits compared to a year ago, while foreclosures and short sales rule. However, it's turning and the smoke is starting to rise before the flame ignites.

Where can you see the smoke? In the numbers that rise or fall before sales and prices jump – pending sales, inventory, and absorption rate.

Across Florida, the inventory was skyrocketing over the last two years, and now those numbers are dropping. At the same time, the sales reported month after month are increasing in the high double digits. Consider these cities: In the Greater Fort Myers area, pending single-family home sales are up 85 percent in just the last 10 weeks, according to the Realtor Association of Greater Fort Myers. Meanwhile, the absorption rate has dropped to half of what it was just four months ago to a 12 month supply.

Ft. Lauderdale's pending sales have jumped an impressive 65 percent from January to February this year; meanwhile, Palm Beach County buyers have purchased 30 percent more single-family homes from February to March.

When you consider that in the past two years, jumps from month to month were either in the single digits or decreasing in the first quarter, the surge of contracts in 2008 demonstrate the Florida market's either near the bottom or it's already behind them.

Reader Comments
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David B
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Don't make me laugh, over the past ten weeks? we went from practically no transactions to some transactions. Of course the transition from winter to spring has everything to do with that. Until financing becomes easier, we will have a bad housing market.

Real Estate Expert Opinion

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The Mortgage Professor
Sun, May 18, 2008
Wholesale data can protect you against price escalation between the day you are quoted a price and the... more
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